I’LL BE BACK – ARE SHOCKS TO COVID-19 TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY?

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine the possible next wave(s) of Covid-19 for 209 countries. The data are total confirmed cases of Covid-19 for the periods spanning between 31 December 2019 and 5 October 2020. The results of unit root tests with a breakpoint suggest 34% (71 countries) of the countries worldwide are transitory (stationary). That is, the shocks such as lockdown have inappropriate effects on the cases of Covid-19. Their next wave of Covid-19 is determining. A 44% (91 countries) of the total has their total confirmed cases of Covid-19 permanent (a unit root), indicating that the next wave is unlikely after the shocks. Other countries are inconclusive. Different continents deliver different findings. This study is relevant to policymakers in both fiscal and monetary policies, as well as international business and finance.