THE IMPACT OF MONETARY VARIABLES ON EXCHANGE RATE IN MALAYSIA FROM 2013 UNTIL 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51200/mjbe.vi.2893Keywords:
monetary variables, exchange rate, interest rateAbstract
This research aims to study the relationship between exchange rate and this study’s independent variables which are, inflation rate, interest rate and foreign exchange reserve in Malaysia. Secondary data from period of 2013 M1 until 2015 M12, which was retrieved from Bloomberg Data. This study uses empirical tools which is E-Views 11 to compute the variables data into empirical result. The results obtained showed that there is a positive insignificant relationship between inflation rate and exchange rate. However, for interest rate, this study found that there is a negative insignificant relationship between interest rate and exchange rate which implies that interest rate has a negative correlation with exchange rate. Further, based on the result of this study, negative relationship is obtained between foreign reserve money and exchange rate which means when there are trends of increase export and remittance will have positive effect on exchange rate while when there is a trend of increase import and foreign reserve money gave a negative impact on exchange rate. As predicted by the literature review, inflation rate and interest rate should have a negative relationship between exchange rate and foreign exchange reserve should have a positive relationship between exchange rate. Yet, this study found an inverse and slightly different compared with the pasted researches done by many researchers. As this study have its limitations, thus recommendations are suggested for researches that will be done in future.
References
Abdoh, W. M. Y. M., Yusuf, N. H. M., Zulkifli, S. A. M. Z., Bulot, N., & Ibrahim, N. J. (2016). Macroeconomic Factors That Influence Exchange Rate Fluctuation in ASEAN Countries. International Academic Research Journal of Social Science, 2 (1):89-94.
Abdullateef, U., & Waheed, I. (2010). External reserve holdings in Nigeria: Implications for investment, inflation and exchange rate. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 2(9): 183-189.
Achsani, N. A. (2010). The Relationship Between Inflation and Real Exchange Rate: Comparative Study Between ASEAN, The EU and North. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sci., 18: 69-76.
Ahmed, S., Awan, R. U., Sial, M. H., & Sher, F. (2012). An econometric analysis of determinant s of exchange rate in Pakistan. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(6).
Aizenman, J. & Glick, R. (2008). Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes – A Trap. Journal of money credit and banking, 40(4): 817-835.
Akhter, F., & Faruqui, N. (2015). Effects of Macroeconomic variables on Exchange Rates in Bangladesh. International journal of Scientific & Engineering Research.
Akram, Q. F. (2003). Real equilibrium exchange rates for Norway. Explaining movements in the Norwegian exchange rate, 32: 53-86.
Albuquerque, C.R., Portugal, M.S. (2005). Exchange Rate and Inflation: A Case of Sulkiness of Volatility, UFRGS, Department of Economy, Text for Discussion No: 2005/1.
Al-Zyoud, H. (2015). An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity Theory for Canadian Dollar-US Dollar Exchange Rates. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(3): 233.
Amuedo-Dorantes, C., & Pozo, S. (2004). Workers’ remittances and the real exchange rate: a paradox of gifts. World development, 32(8): 1407-1417.
Anita Mirchandani, 2013. Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility in India. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, 3(1): 172-179.
Ardeni, P. G. (1989). Does the law of one price really hold for commodity prices? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 71(3): 661-669.
Arunachalam, P. (2010). Foreign exchange reserves in India and China. African Journal of Marketing Management, 2(4): 69-79.
Aziz, S. (n.d). History of Malaysian Exchange Rate. ACADEMIA. Retrieved from http://www. academia.edu/9850577/history_of_malaysian_exc hange_rate
Baba, N., & Packer, F. (2009). Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007–2008. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33(11): 1953-1962.
Balke, N. S., & Wohar, M. E. (1998). Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity. Empirical Economics, 23(4): 535-559.
Bank Negara Malaysia. (2015). Significant milestones in the Malaysian Foreign Exchange Market. Retrieved from http://www.bnm.gov. my/index.php?ch= en_fxmm_mo&pg=en_fxmm_mo_overview&ac=453&lang=en
Bashir, T., Javed, A., Raza, A., Ali, M. A., Ali, A. A., & Hassan, M. (2013). Dynamics of Nominal Exchange Rate with Price Levels: What Happens in International Markets? European Scientific Journal, 9(31).
Bekaert, G., Wei, M., & Xing, Y. (2007). Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(6): 1038-1069.
Birau, F. R. (2012). Econometric approach of Heteroscedasticity on financial time series in a general framework. Economy Series, (4): 74-77.
Bleaney, M. & Tian, M. (2014). Net Foreign Assets, Real Exchange Rates and Net Exports Revisited. Credit Research Paper, 13/04.
Bouraoui, T., & Phisuthtiwatcharavong, A. (2015). On the Determinants of the THB/USD Exchange Rate. Procedia Economics and Finance, 30: 137-145.
Bunjaku, M. F. (2015). Exchange Rate Regimes–A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo. Academic Journal of Business, Administration, Law and Social Sciences, 1(1): 40-46.
Calvo, G. M., & Reinhart, C. M. (2002). Fear of Floating. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2): 379-408.
Cavallo, M. & Ghironi, F. (2002). Net Foreign Assets and the Exchange Rate: Redux Revived. Journal of Monetary Economics 49: 1057-1097.
Ceyda Oner, (2010). Back to Basic: What is Inflation? Finance and Development International Monetary Fund.
Chaboud, A. P., & Wright, J. H. (2005). Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long. Journal of International Economics, 66(2): 349-362.
Chia, W.M., Jinjarak, Y., Rana, P., & Xie, T. (2014). Net Foreign Assets and Macroeconomic Volatility. Journal of Asian Economics, 34: 42-53.
Chowdhury, M. S. R., & Hossain, M. T. (2014). Determinants of Exchange Rate in Bangladesh: A Case Study. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(1): 78-81.
Dogruel, F., & Dogruel, A. S. (2013). Price convergence and globalization: Evidence from selected countries. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies, 15(2): 105-120.
Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and exchange rate Dynamics. The Journal of Political Economy, 84(6): 1161-1176
Eeddin, A. (1988). Interest and Price Party and Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency: The Irish Experience in the European Monetary System. Economic and Social Review, 19(3): 215.
Emmanuel, U. C. (2013). Accumulation of External Reserves and Effects on Exchange Rates and Inflation in Nigeria. International Business and Management, 6(2): 105-114.
Ezirim, C. B., Edith AzukaAmuzie and Michael I. Muoghalu. (2012). Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis of Interdependencies Between Inflation and Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan Nigeria. The IABPAD Conference Proceedings Dallas, Texas, Vol. 9, No. 2, April 19-22, 2012, pp. 1082-1093
F. Allen and D. Gale. (2004). Competition and financial stability. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 433-480.
Faure, Alexander Pierre. (2014). Interest Rates 1: What are Interest Rates? SSRN Electronic Journal. 10.2139/ssrn.2542083.
Fong, W. M., Valente, G., & Fung, J. K. (2010). Covered interest arbitrage profits: The role of liquidity and credit risk. Journal of banking & finance, 34(5): 1098 1107.
Frenkel, J. A. (1981). The collapse of purchasing power parities during the 1970’s. European Economic Review, 16(1): 145-165.
Frenkel, J. A., & Levich, R. M. (1975). Covered interest arbitrage: Unexploited profits? The Journal of Political Economy: 325-338.
Frenkel, J. A., & Levich, R. M. (1975). Covered interest arbitrage: Unexploited profits? The Journal of Political Economy: 325-338.
Gailliot, H. J. (1970). Purchasing power parity as an explanation of long-term changes in exchange rates. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2(3): 348-357.
Goh, S. K., & McNown, R. (2015). Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia. International Review of Economics & Finance, 35: 292-303.
Goh, S. K., Lim, G. C., & Olekalns, N. (2006). Deviation from uncovered interest parity in Malaysia. Applied Financial Economics, 16(10):745–759.
Gokhale, A. S., & Raju, J. V. R. (2013). Causality between Exchange Rate and Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Indian Context. Global Journal of Management and Business Research Finance, 13(7):7-11.
Goyal, A. (2014). Purchasing power parity, wages and inflation in emerging markets. Foreign Trade Review, 49(4): 327-347.
Gujarati, D.N., & Porter, D.C. (2009). Basic econometrics. (5th ed.). Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Hakkio, C. S. (1992). Is purchasing power parity a useful guide to the dollar? Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 77(3):37.
Hassan, M. H., & Gharleghi, B. (2015). Exchange Rate Determination in Maldives: A Study Based on the Sticky Price Monetary Model. International Journal of Business and Management, 10(7):85.
Hiroyuki, T. (2011). Monetary autonomy in emerging market economies: The role of foreign reserves. Emerging Market Review, 12: 371- 388.
Irefin, D., & Yaaba, B. N. (2012). Determinants of foreign reserves in Nigeria: An autoregressive distributed lag approach. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 2(2):69.
Kashif, S. (2000). The Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Inflation.
King, T. D. (1977). The performance of exchange rates in the recent period of floating: Exchange rates and relative rates of inflation. Southern Economic Journal, 43(4): 1582-1587
Kouritzin, M. A., & Heunis, A. J. (1992). Rates of convergence in a central limit theorem for stochastic processes defined by differential equations with a small parameter. Journal of multivariate analysis, 43(1): 58-109.
Koveos, P., & Seifert, B. (1985). Purchasing power parity and black markets. Financial Management, 40-46.
Kowalczyk, D. (n.d). Purposes of Research: Exploratory, Descriptive & Explanatory. Retrieved from http://study.com/academy/lesson/purposes-of-research-exploratory-descriptive-explanatory.html
Lane, P.R. & Milessi-Ferreti, G.M. (2004). The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rate. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 86 (4):841 857.
McBrady, M. R., Mortal, S., & Schill, M. J. (2010). Do Firms Believe in Interest Rate Parity? Review of Finance, 14:695–726
Mohd, W., Mohd, Y., Hafizha, N., Yusuf, M., Azreen, S., Zulkifli, M., Ibrahim, N. J. et al. (2016). Macroeconomic Factors That Influence Exchange Rate Fluctuation in ASEAN Countries. International Academic Research Journal of Social Science, 2(1):89–94.
Mohd, W., Mohd, Y., Hafizha, N., Yusuf, M., Azreen, S., Zulkifli, M., Ibrahim, N. J. et al. (2016). Macroeconomic Factors That Influence Exchange Rate Fluctuation in ASEAN Countries. International Academic Research Journal of Social Science, 2(1):89–94.
Nathesan, S. (2015, August 13). Mind your pronunciation of the ringgit. The Star Online. Retrieved from http://m.thestar.com.my/story.aspx?hl=Mind+your+pronunciation+of+the+ringgit&sec=opinion&id=%7BCBE57273-CA35-4745-ACD6-99F325815071%7D
Nwude, E. C. (2012). A Survey of Foreign Exchange Rate Determinants in Nigeria. European Journal of Business and Management, 4 (13).
Ogun, O. D. (2012). Exchange rate determination in developing economies. Modern Economy, 3(5): 518.
Okoth, P. H. (2014). The effect of lending interest rates on the performance of the Nairobi securities exchange (Doctoral dissertation).
Olayungbo, D. O., & Akinbobola, T. O. (2011). Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rates in Nigeria: Structural Breaks, Unit Roots and Cointegration Tests. Journal of Social and Economic Development,13 (2): 7-9.
Parveen, S., Khan, A. Q., & Ismail, M. (2012). Analysis of the factors affecting exchange rate variability in Pakistan. Academic Research International, 2(3):670.
Patosa, Jerson & Cruz, Agustina. (2012). Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Movements in Selected Asian Countries: https://www. researchgate-net/publication/238981216.
Phillips, P. C. B., Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in a time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2): 335–346.
Prabheesh, K. P., Malathy, D., & Madhumathi, R. (2007). Demand for Foreign Exchange Reserves in India: A Co-integration Approach. South Asian Journal of Management, 14(2): 36-46.
Proti, N. P. (2013). Exchange Rate Fluctuation Shock in Tanzania An Empirical Analysis. Scholarly Journal of Business Administration, 3(1): 12-19.
Ramasamy, R., & Abar, S. K. (2015). Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on Exchange Rates. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(2).
Rogoff, K. (1996). The purchasing power parity puzzle. Journal of Economic literature, 34(2): 647-668.
Roubini, K. S. (2000). Exchange Rate Anomalies in The Industrial Countries. Journal of Monitory Economics, 560-587.